A²I™ Device Corpus

34 structured rejection patterns

Drawn from published MSAC, NICE, and PHARMAC device guidance, plus real CMS National Coverage Determinations (United States Medicare — the largest single US public funding channel, not the only one; Medicaid and private payers aren't covered here). This is pattern-level intelligence, not yet a full per-decision corpus for every body — the next phase sources further individual historical device funding decisions to match the depth of the 158-decision PTAC pharma corpus.

Assumption domain library (10)

Fixed categories — every Stage 01 assumption is classified into exactly one

Clinical domains carry the primary evidence burden, funding domains cover the economic case, and Equity (DD10) is a non-overridable gate: if there is no real evidence for how a device reaches underserved or high-need populations, the overall score is hard-capped regardless of every other domain. The weight shown is each domain's deterministic Impact input to Claim Weight (ACS) — never a freehand number.

ClinicalDD1
weight 4

Clinical Utility / Efficacy

Does the device change clinical management in a way that improves patient outcomes — not merely that it functions correctly or is safe.

ClinicalDD2
weight 2

Safety Profile

Adverse event evidence, long-term safety data for implantables, post-market surveillance and registry requirements.

ClinicalDD3
weight 4

Comparative Effectiveness

Evidence against the correct standard-of-care comparator for the target market — not placebo, not an international comparator, not the current funded alternative left unaddressed.

ClinicalDD4
weight 3

Study Design & Endpoint Validity

Single-arm vs. controlled design, pre-specification of the primary endpoint, surrogate vs. patient-relevant endpoints, sample size adequacy.

ClinicalDD5
weight 2

Population Generalisability

Whether the evidence population bridges to the target market's clinical practice, disease prevalence, and treatment pathway.

ClinicalDD6
weight 3

Follow-up & Durability of Outcome

Sufficiency of follow-up duration to capture clinically meaningful, durable outcomes, and real-world evidence following initial deployment.

FundingDD7
weight 4

Economic Model / Cost-Effectiveness

Presence and adequacy of a health economic model meeting the target body's reference case (QALY/cost-utility, Australian/UK/NZ-specific costs and epidemiology).

FundingDD8
weight 4

Budget Impact & Service Delivery Burden

Operational and budget-impact evidence: site-of-service requirements, operator-volume/team requirements, training burden, supply chain and implementation suitability.

FundingDD9
weight 3

Access & Reimbursement Pathway

Coverage-pathway strategy: Coverage with Evidence Development plans, Patient Access Scheme-equivalent proposals, national vs. fragmented local coverage strategy, shared decision-making documentation for preference-sensitive devices.

EquityDD10
weight 5

Equity Access Claim

Equity-of-access evidence for underserved/high-deprivation populations (e.g. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander, rural/remote, Māori and Pacific). Non-overridable gate: if this domain has zero confirmed evidence-quality findings, the composite score is hard-capped at 2.5 regardless of every other domain.

Verified individual HTA decisions (58)

NICE + MSAC + CMS · each entry links to the real published decision

Unlike the patterns above, these are named, individually-sourced device decisions — a real device, a real committee or agency outcome, and a direct citation to the published PSD, NICE guidance, or CMS coverage determination. CMS is included here (not FDA) because it is the actual US body that decides device funding — FDA only decides market approval, a different question covered separately as reference material. PHARMAC individual decisions are not yet included. This is a representative sample built by locating and reading individual decisions one at a time, not exhaustive coverage of any body's full history.

NICEHTG570
Not recommended

Alpha-Stim AID (cranial electrotherapy stimulation for anxiety disorders)

published 8 March 2021

Not recommended for routine NHS adoption. Further research required before reconsideration.

NICEHTG556
Not recommended

SEM Scanner 200 (sub-epidermal moisture scanner for pressure ulcer prevention)

published 14 October 2020

Not recommended for routine adoption. A randomised controlled trial against standard risk assessment was specified as the evidence needed to reconsider.

NICEHTG671
Restricted / conditional

AposHealth (biomechanical gait-retraining device for knee osteoarthritis)

published 11 April 2023

Recommended only for a defined subgroup — patients who meet knee-replacement referral criteria but decline surgery — conditional on real-world data collection. Explicitly not recommended for patients unfit for surgery, pending further research.

NICEHTG554
Adopted

Axonics sacral neuromodulation system (refractory overactive bladder)

published 3 September 2020

Recommended for adoption, positioned as an option after conservative and drug treatment fail.

NICEHTG533
Restricted / conditional

gammaCore (non-invasive vagus nerve stimulator for cluster headache)

published 3 December 2019

Recommended for adoption, but with a mandatory stopping rule: only patients who respond within the first 3 months continue treatment.

NICEHTG606
Restricted / conditional

KardiaMobile (single-lead ECG for atrial fibrillation detection)

published 6 January 2022

Adopted, but NHS supply was paused between December 2022 and July 2023 until the manufacturer met the Digital Technology Assessment Criteria (DTAC) — illustrating that a positive recommendation is not necessarily a permanent, unconditional funding outcome.

MSAC1145
Restricted / conditional

Artificial cervical intervertebral disc replacement (cervical degenerative disc disease)

published 29 November 2011

Supported for MBS funding, but only for single-level cervical degenerative disc disease in skeletally mature patients with a stable spine, no prior cervical surgery, who had failed conservative therapy.

MSAC1192
Not recommended

Percutaneous mitral valve repair (transvenous/transseptal tissue approximation) for mitral regurgitation

published 29-30 November 2012

Not supported for MBS funding.

MSAC1365
Not recommended

Vibrant Soundbridge partially implantable active middle ear implant for sensorineural hearing loss

published 1-2 April 2015

Not supported for MBS funding, resubmission invited.

MSAC1361.2
Restricted / conditional

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), transfemoral, for high-risk/inoperable patients

published 30-31 March 2016

Supported for MBS funding, conditional on a fee cut, mandatory heart-team assessment of every patient, facility/operator accreditation, and mandatory outcome-registry reporting.

MSAC1640
Adopted

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), transfemoral, extended to low-surgical-risk patients

published 29-30 July 2021

Supported — new MBS item created, device-agnostic descriptor, extending TAVI funding to low-risk patients.

MSAC1663
Deferred

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) Initiative subsidy review, Type 1 diabetes

published 29-30 July 2021

Deferred rather than confirmed or withdrawn — MSAC asked for the funded population to be redefined and the economic model rebuilt before it would give a clean recommendation.

CMSNCD 20.32
Covered — evidence development

Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR)

published 21 June 2019 (v2; original 1 May 2012)

Covered for symptomatic aortic valve stenosis within an FDA-approved indication, contingent on Coverage with Evidence Development (CED) requirements.

CMSNCD 20.34
Covered — evidence development

Percutaneous Left Atrial Appendage Closure (Watchman-type devices)

published 8 February 2016

Covered for non-valvular atrial fibrillation only under CED, as a second-line alternative to anticoagulation.

CMSNCD 230.18
Restricted / conditional

Sacral Nerve Stimulation for Urinary Incontinence

published 1 January 2002

Covered for urge incontinence, urgency-frequency syndrome, and urinary retention, conditional on treatment history and a successful test-stimulation phase.

CMSNCD 50.3
Restricted / conditional

Cochlear Implantation

published 4 April 2005 (v2; superseded 26 September 2022)

Covered for bilateral moderate-to-profound sensorineural hearing loss in patients who gain limited benefit from hearing aids.

CMSNCD 160.18
Adopted

Vagus Nerve Stimulation (VNS) — refractory epilepsy

published 1 July 1999

Covered for medically refractory partial-onset seizures where surgery is not recommended or has failed.

CMSNCD 160.18
Not recommended

Vagus Nerve Stimulation (VNS) — treatment-resistant depression

published 4 May 2007

Not covered for treatment-resistant depression, despite FDA approval of the device for this indication in 2005.

NICEHTG562 (formerly MTG52)
Restricted / conditional

Zio XT (ambulatory ECG patch for cardiac arrhythmia detection)

published 1 December 2020

Recommended as an option for suspected arrhythmias needing >24h ambulatory ECG, conditional on NHS organisations collecting resource-use and longer-term outcome data.

NICEHTG538 (formerly MTG47)
Not recommended

Episcissors-60 (guided mediolateral episiotomy scissors)

published 11 February 2020

Shows promise but not enough evidence for routine NHS adoption; further research recommended.

NICEMTG18
Deferred

MAGEC system (magnetically controlled growing rods for early-onset scoliosis)

published June 2014 (withdrawn April 2020; under review August 2024)

Originally recommended; guidance later withdrawn. After UK suspension of modified MAGEC X was lifted (Aug 2024), NICE prioritisation board is reviewing whether to reinstate or replace the guidance.

NICEHTG290 (formerly MTG11)
Restricted / conditional

Mega Soft Patient Return Electrode (monopolar electrosurgery)

published 22 August 2012

May offer advantages for selected patients (e.g. fragile or damaged skin); comparative clinical evidence against disposable pads is limited.

NICEHTG502
Restricted / conditional

UrgoStart (dressings for diabetic foot and leg ulcers)

published 31 January 2019

Recommended as cost-saving for diabetic foot ulcers and venous leg ulcers; not enough evidence for routine adoption in non-venous leg ulcers.

NICEHTG486
Not recommended

Neuropad (sweat-test patch for preclinical diabetic peripheral neuropathy)

published 10 September 2018

Case for adopting Neuropad not supported by the evidence.

NICEHTG615
Not recommended

3C Patch (autologous blood-derived patch for diabetic foot ulcers)

published 7 March 2022

Not recommended as a cost-saving option for diabetic foot ulcers.

NICEHTG616
Not recommended

Prontosan (wound irrigation / gel for acute and chronic wounds)

published 8 March 2022

More research recommended for chronic wounds; not recommended for acute wounds because evidence is very limited.

NICEHTG620
Not recommended

UroShield (ultrasonic catheter accessory for CAUTI prevention)

published 31 March 2022

Potential patient and system benefits acknowledged, but more comparative research required before routine adoption.

NICEHTG601
Not recommended

Synergo (microwave hyperthermia + chemotherapy for NMIBC)

published 30 November 2021

Shows promise for BCG-refractory / BCG-intolerant high-risk NMIBC, but not enough good-quality evidence for routine adoption; special arrangements only.

NICEHTG545
Adopted

Rezum (water-vapour therapy for BPH / LUTS)

published 24 June 2020

Evidence supports adopting Rezum for moderate-to-severe LUTS with a moderately enlarged prostate; cost modelling estimated savings versus TURP/HoLEP.

NICEHTG498
Adopted

Senza SCS delivering HF10 therapy (chronic neuropathic pain after failed back surgery)

published 23 January 2019

Case for adopting Senza HF10 SCS supported — at least as effective as low-frequency SCS without paraesthesia.

NICEHTG429
Adopted

HeartFlow FFRCT (non-invasive fractional flow reserve from CCTA)

published 13 February 2017

Case for adopting HeartFlow FFRCT supported for stable recent-onset chest pain offered CCTA (64-slice or above).

NICEHTG578
Adopted

UroLift System (prostatic urethral lift for BPH / LUTS)

published 4 May 2021

Evidence supports adopting UroLift as a minimally invasive alternative to TURP/HoLEP; modelling suggested cost savings.

CMSNCD 20.8.4 (CAG-00448N)
Covered — evidence development

Leadless pacemakers

published 18 January 2017

Covered for bradyarrhythmia under Coverage with Evidence Development (CED).

CMSNCD 20.9.1
Restricted / conditional

Ventricular assist devices (VAD) — bridge-to-transplant and destination therapy

published Updated through Dec 2020 NCD Manual revisions

Covered for advanced heart failure meeting clinical and device-approval criteria (including destination-therapy pathways).

CMSNCD 20.4 (CAG-00157R4)
Restricted / conditional

Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs)

published 15 February 2018

Covered for specified ventricular-arrhythmia / cardiomyopathy indications; shared decision-making required for some groups.

CMSNCD 20.33
Covered — evidence development

Transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER) for mitral regurgitation

published 31 July 2023 (current version)

Covered under CED for symptomatic moderate-to-severe/severe functional MR despite GDMT, or significant symptomatic degenerative MR per FDA-approved indication.

CMSNCD 20.8.3
Restricted / conditional

Single- and dual-chamber permanent cardiac pacemakers

published 13 August 2013

Covered for non-reversible symptomatic bradycardia due to sinus node dysfunction or second/third-degree AV block; other indications left to MAC discretion.

CMSNCD 160.24
Restricted / conditional

Deep brain stimulation for essential tremor and Parkinson’s disease

published 1 April 2003

Covered for FDA-approved DBS targets in essential tremor and Parkinson’s disease when clinical and facility criteria are met.

CMSNCD 160.7
Restricted / conditional

Electrical nerve stimulators (implanted peripheral and CNS / dorsal-column)

published 7 August 1995

Covered for chronic intractable pain under late-resort criteria, including temporary electrode trial before permanent implantation.

CMSNCD 280.14
Restricted / conditional

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) pumps

published 17 December 2004 (CSII criteria)

Covered in the home setting for diabetic patients meeting C-peptide/autoantibody and intensive insulin-therapy criteria.

CMSLCD L35136
Restricted / conditional

Spinal cord stimulators (local coverage)

published Local coverage determination (MAC)

Covered under local MAC criteria for chronic intractable pain — not a national NCD.

CMSLCD L38657
Restricted / conditional

Implantable continuous glucose monitors (I-CGM) (local coverage)

published Local coverage determination (MAC)

Covered under local MAC criteria for diabetes management — not a national NCD.

MSAC1734
Adopted

Intravascular lithotripsy for calcified peripheral artery disease

published 28–29 November 2024

Supported — therapeutic technology; new MBS item pathway.

MSAC1749
Adopted

Durable left ventricular assist device for destination therapy

published 28–29 November 2024

Supported (therapeutic technology) for destination-therapy LVAD use.

MSAC1672
Adopted

Leadless permanent pacemaker (Micra TPS) insertion/removal for bradyarrhythmia

published 28–29 July 2022

Supported for new MBS items covering leadless pacemaker procedures.

MSAC1772
Not recommended

AV-synchronous single-chamber leadless pacemaker for bradycardia

published 3–4 April 2025

Not supported.

MSAC1727
Adopted

Deep brain stimulation for treatment-refractory obsessive-compulsive disorder

published 23–24 November 2023

Supported.

MSAC1701
Not recommended

Deep brain stimulation of the thalamus for severe refractory epilepsy

published 30–31 March 2023

Not supported.

MSAC1358
Not recommended

Vagus nerve stimulation therapy for drug-resistant epilepsy

published 30–31 July 2015

Not supported for MBS funding.

MSAC1354
Not recommended

IVUS-guided coronary stent insertion (original application)

published 1–2 April 2015

Not supported.

MSAC1354.1
Restricted / conditional

IVUS-guided coronary stent insertion (re-application)

published 31 March–1 April 2022

Partially supported.

MSAC1223
Adopted

CRT-D for mild–severe chronic heart failure (NYHA II–IV)

published 28 November 2013 (with later related meetings)

Supported.

MSAC1523
Not recommended

Impella intravascular microaxial blood pump for mechanical circulatory support

published 28–29 November 2019

Not supported.

MSAC1347
Not recommended

Transcatheter left atrial appendage occlusion for non-valvular AF

published 26–28 November 2014

Not supported.

MSAC1472
Adopted

Cyanoacrylate embolisation for varicose veins (chronic venous insufficiency)

published 27 July 2017

Supported.

MSAC1661
Not recommended

Minimally invasive interspinous decompression spacers for lumbar stenosis

published 25–26 November 2021

Not supported.

MSAC1697
Restricted / conditional

Minimally invasive BPH therapies review (TUWA, PUL, EEP, VLAP, TUMT)

published 28–29 July 2022

Supported new MBS items for TUWA and PUL; retained EEP/VLAP; advised removing TUMT.

MSAC1801
Adopted

Autologous skin cell suspension for acute burn wounds

published 31 July–1 August 2025

Supported (therapeutic technology) for paediatric and adult acute burns.

34 patterns
MSACM01

Single-arm study design

DD4 · All, Diagnostic, Implantable, Digital Health / SaMD

MSAC consistently rejects clinical utility claims based on single-arm studies. Comparative evidence against current Australian standard of care is required. Single-arm studies are only accepted for safety and feasibility claims, not for clinical utility or cost-effectiveness.

Signal: Single-arm design proposed or completed with no comparator arm.
Risk of BiasIndirectness
MSACM02

No active comparator or wrong comparator

DD3 · All

The comparator must reflect current Australian clinical practice — not placebo, historical control, or international standard of care unless explicitly justified. MSAC has deferred multiple applications where the comparator was not the Australian standard of care.

Signal: Planned study uses placebo, no comparator, or a non-Australian standard of care.
Indirectness
MSACM03

Surrogate endpoints only

DD4 · Diagnostic, IVD, Digital Health / SaMD

MSAC requires patient-relevant outcomes — survival, quality of life, functional status, or validated intermediate endpoints with demonstrated linkage to patient outcomes. Diagnostic accuracy alone is insufficient without evidence of downstream patient benefit.

Signal: Only sensitivity/specificity or other surrogate reported, no linkage to patient outcome.
IndirectnessImprecision
MSACM04

Population not generalisable to Australia

DD5 · All

Studies conducted entirely in non-Australian populations require explicit bridging justification. MSAC has rejected or deferred applications where prevalence, treatment pathway, or clinical setting differed materially from Australian practice.

Signal: Evidence base is entirely international (particularly US/European) with no bridging argument.
Indirectness
MSACM05
In silico path

No economic model or inadequate cost-effectiveness analysis

DD7 · All

MSAC requires a full health economic model for all MBS listing applications, using Australian costs and epidemiology, presenting cost per QALY or cost per clinical outcome. Absence of an economic model is an automatic rejection driver.

Signal: No economic model, or model not yet started/scoped.
Imprecision
MSACM06

Insufficient follow-up

DD6 · Implantable, All

MSAC has deferred applications where follow-up was insufficient to capture clinically meaningful outcomes. Implantable devices require a minimum 12 months; chronic condition devices require follow-up commensurate with the disease course.

Signal: Follow-up period under 12 months for an implantable, or short relative to the natural disease course.
Imprecision
MSACM07

Equity evidence absent

DD10 · All

MSAC requires explicit consideration of access for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and rural/remote populations. Applications that do not address equity of access are flagged, weighted heavily where the condition has disproportionate burden in these populations.

Signal: No equity evidence or access consideration included in the submission.
MSACM08

Clinical utility not established independently from safety

DD1 · Diagnostic, IVD

MSAC separates assessment of safety, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness. A device shown to be safe and to perform as claimed has not thereby shown clinical utility — it must show it changes clinical management in a way that improves patient outcomes.

Signal: Evidence plan conflates device performance/safety data with a clinical utility claim.
Indirectness
MSACM09

Small sample size / underpowered studies

DD4 · All

MSAC has rejected applications where sample sizes were insufficient to detect a clinically meaningful difference. Studies powered for regulatory clearance are frequently underpowered for MSAC's comparative-effectiveness purposes.

Signal: Sample size set for regulatory clearance only, not powered for comparative effectiveness.
Imprecision
MSACM10

No pre-specified primary endpoint

DD4 · All

Post-hoc endpoint selection or composite endpoints without pre-specification are a recurring MSAC concern. The primary endpoint must be pre-specified, clinically relevant, and powered accordingly.

Signal: Primary endpoint not yet pre-specified, or endpoint selection deferred to analysis stage.
Risk of Bias
NICEN01

Evidence does not meet ESF tier requirement

DD1 · Digital Health / SaMD

NICE's Evidence Standards Framework (ESF) sets tier-specific requirements for digital health technologies. Tier A (self-care) needs acceptability/usability evidence; Tier B (guided self-care) needs effectiveness evidence; Tier C (treatment/clinical pathway) needs RCT-level or equivalent evidence. Claiming a higher tier than the evidence supports is a primary rejection driver.

Signal: Claimed ESF tier is higher than the evidence base supports.
Imprecision
NICEN02
In silico path

No QALY-based economic model

DD7 · All

NICE requires a cost-utility analysis using QALYs, reference case threshold £20,000–£30,000/QALY (higher for end-of-life criteria: survival under 24 months, QALY gain ≥3 months). Applications without a QALY model are rejected at assessment stage.

Signal: No QALY model present, or economic model status is not started/scoped.
Imprecision
NICEN03

Non-UK population without bridging evidence

DD5 · All

Evidence from non-UK populations must be explicitly bridged to UK NHS clinical practice, addressing differences in care pathways, disease prevalence, and treatment standards. US evidence in particular frequently requires substantial bridging.

Signal: Evidence base is non-UK (especially US) with no bridging argument to NHS practice.
Indirectness
NICEN04

Surrogate endpoints not validated against patient outcomes

DD4 · Diagnostic, IVD, Digital Health / SaMD

NICE requires validated surrogate endpoints — evidence that the surrogate reliably predicts the patient-relevant outcome. Unvalidated surrogates lead to high uncertainty ratings and typically a not-recommended or research-only outcome.

Signal: Surrogate/biomarker endpoint used with no validation evidence linking it to patient outcomes.
Indirectness
NICEN05

No equality impact assessment

DD10 · All

Under the Equality Act 2010, NICE requires applicants to demonstrate consideration of impact on protected characteristics (age, sex, disability, ethnicity, etc). Missing equality impact assessments are a compliance gap that delays or blocks appraisal.

Signal: No equality impact assessment included in the submission.
NICEN06

Inadequate long-term safety data for implantables

DD2 · Implantable

For implantable devices, NICE and the MHRA require long-term safety evidence — short-term studies are insufficient. Implant registries, post-market surveillance data, and adverse event reporting are expected.

Signal: Safety data limited to pre-clinical or early clinical only, no long-term/registry data.
Imprecision
NICEN07

No real-world evidence for digital health post-deployment

DD6 · Digital Health / SaMD

For SaMD and digital health technologies, NICE increasingly requires real-world evidence of effectiveness in NHS settings following initial deployment. Bench performance and trial data alone are insufficient for sustained commissioning.

Signal: No real-world/post-deployment evidence plan for a digital health or SaMD claim.
Indirectness
NICEN08
In silico path

Health economic model does not meet NICE reference case

DD7 · All

NICE's reference case specifies perspective (NHS and personal social services), time horizon (lifetime), discount rate (3.5% costs and outcomes), and utility measurement (EQ-5D). Deviations without justification result in model rejection.

Signal: Economic model deviates from NICE reference case parameters without justification.
Risk of Bias
NICEN09

No Patient Access Scheme when cost-effectiveness uncertain

DD9 · All

Where cost-effectiveness is uncertain or the ICER exceeds threshold, NICE expects a Patient Access Scheme proposal. Absence of a PAS when the base case ICER is above £30,000 is a negative signal.

Signal: Base case ICER likely to exceed £30,000/QALY with no PAS proposed.
Imprecision
NICEN10

Single-arm studies for treatment pathway devices

DD3 · Therapeutic / Surgical, Implantable

For devices in the treatment pathway (ESF Tier C), NICE requires comparative evidence. Single-arm studies demonstrating device performance are insufficient to establish comparative effectiveness against current NHS standard of care.

Signal: Single-arm design for a Tier C / treatment-pathway device claim.
Risk of BiasIndirectness
PHARMACP01

No comparator against current Hospital/Community Device Schedule item

DD3 · All

PHARMAC's Factors for Consideration require comparison against the current funded alternative (an existing Schedule device or standard hospital practice), not an unfunded or international comparator, unless a case is made for a first-in-class listing.

Signal: No head-to-head or cost comparison against the currently funded device/practice.
Indirectness
PHARMACP02
In silico path

No cost-utility / budget impact analysis

DD7 · All

PHARMAC's investment approach weighs health need, health benefit, cost, and suitability within a fixed device/pharmaceutical budget. Applications without a budget impact analysis and cost-utility case are difficult to prioritise against competing investments.

Signal: No budget impact or cost-utility analysis prepared for the funding application.
Imprecision
PHARMACP03

Equity evidence absent for Māori and Pacific populations

DD10 · All

Under Te Tiriti o Waitangi obligations, PHARMAC requires explicit consideration of equity impact for Māori and Pacific peoples. Absent equity evidence can block funded access or generate binding conditions, consistent with the pattern seen across PHARMAC's pharmaceutical decisions.

Signal: No equity evidence or impact assessment for Māori/Pacific populations.
PHARMACP04

Population not generalisable to New Zealand clinical practice

DD5 · All

Evidence generated entirely offshore (commonly US, European, or Australian trials) requires bridging to the New Zealand health system, clinical pathway, and population profile before PHARMAC will treat it as directly applicable.

Signal: Evidence base is entirely non-NZ with no bridging rationale to NZ practice.
Indirectness
PHARMACP05

Insufficient evidence of health need or clinical benefit

DD1 · All

PHARMAC's Factors for Consideration weigh the health need of the population against the strength and directness of clinical benefit evidence. Surrogate-only or indirect evidence weakens the case relative to devices with direct, patient-relevant outcome data.

Signal: Clinical benefit case rests on surrogate or indirect endpoints rather than direct patient outcomes.
Imprecision
PHARMACP06

No suitability/implementation evidence for the NZ health system

DD8 · Implantable, Therapeutic / Surgical, Digital Health / SaMD

PHARMAC's suitability criterion considers practical implementation — training burden, supply chain, compatibility with existing hospital equipment/workflow. Devices with no NZ implementation or training plan face additional funding risk.

Signal: No implementation, training, or supply plan addressing NZ health system suitability.
Imprecision
CMSC01

No Coverage with Evidence Development (CED) pathway proposed

DD9 · Implantable, All

For novel or high-uncertainty devices, CMS frequently covers only under Coverage with Evidence Development — a national registry tracking safety/effectiveness outcomes for a defined period — rather than issuing an unconditional yes or no. Devices with no post-market data-collection plan face a higher risk of CED-only or non-coverage, as seen with TAVR and LAAC.

Signal: No registry, post-market surveillance, or data-collection plan proposed alongside the funding request.
Imprecision
CMSC02

No site-of-service, operator-volume, or team-based requirement addressed

DD8 · Implantable

CMS has repeatedly conditioned coverage for higher-risk implantables on multidisciplinary team evaluation (e.g. TAVR's heart-team requirement), facility accreditation, and operator case-volume minimums. Applications silent on these operational conditions are less likely to secure unconditional coverage.

Signal: No proposed site-of-service, credentialing, or team-based-review requirement for a higher-risk implantable.
Risk of Bias
CMSC03

FDA clearance assumed to establish CMS 'reasonable and necessary' evidence

DD1 · All

CMS's coverage standard is independent of FDA clearance/approval — a device can be legally marketable and still be found not reasonable and necessary for Medicare if outcome evidence for the specific population is lacking. CMS declined coverage for vagus nerve stimulation in treatment-resistant depression on exactly this basis, despite FDA approval for that indication.

Signal: Evidence plan treats FDA clearance as sufficient justification for Medicare coverage without population-specific outcome data.
Indirectness
CMSC04

No national coverage determination — relies on fragmented Local Coverage Determinations

DD9 · All

Many device categories have no National Coverage Determination at all, leaving coverage to Local Coverage Determinations set independently by each Medicare Administrative Contractor. A device can be funded in one region and denied in another with no single national resolution — a fragmentation risk that a funding strategy should explicitly address.

Signal: Funding strategy assumes a single national US coverage outcome without accounting for MAC-level LCD variation.
Inconsistency
CMSC05

No evidence positioning against the drug-based standard of care

DD3 · Implantable, Therapeutic / Surgical

Where a device proposes to replace or supplement a pharmaceutical standard of care (e.g. an anticoagulation alternative), CMS coverage has required evidence on appropriateness for patients who can and cannot tolerate the drug-based comparator long-term — not device performance data alone.

Signal: No evidence addressing patient suitability for, or intolerance of, the existing drug-based standard of care.
Indirectness
CMSC06

No defined population threshold for a borderline/intermediate subgroup

DD5 · All

CMS coverage often applies a specific clinical threshold (a risk score, symptom severity band, or audiometric cutoff) with a narrower, trial-only pathway for patients just outside it — as seen in cochlear implantation's borderline benefit-score carve-out. Evidence plans with no defined threshold or borderline-population strategy face ambiguous coverage at the margins.

Signal: No defined clinical threshold or subgroup criteria distinguishing clearly-covered from borderline patients.
Imprecision
CMSC07

No shared decision-making documentation for a preference-sensitive device

DD9 · Implantable

For elective, preference-sensitive procedures with a viable non-device alternative, CMS has made a documented shared decision-making conversation between clinician and patient a coverage precondition, not just a best-practice recommendation.

Signal: No shared decision-making documentation requirement built into the proposed care pathway.
Risk of Bias
CMSC08

No early CMS engagement for a Breakthrough Device under the TCET pathway

DD9 · All

CMS's 2024 Transitional Coverage for Emerging Technologies (TCET) pathway offers expedited Medicare coverage for FDA-designated Breakthrough Devices, but requires manufacturer self-nomination roughly 12 months ahead of expected FDA action. Breakthrough-designated devices with no CMS engagement plan risk a coverage gap after FDA clearance.

Signal: Device holds or is pursuing FDA Breakthrough Device designation with no corresponding CMS/TCET engagement plan.
Risk of Bias